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https://echelonmark.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/echelon_video5.mp4 President Donald Trump makes no secret of the fact that the U.S. is engaged in a geopolitical competition with China. While the U.S. is still the largest economy in the world, it is closely followed by the Asian superpower. When Trump initiated the global tariff war in April, it was clear the main target was China. However, the previous Joe Biden administration also engaged in a trade war with the country. Among the many concerns of the Trump administration is China’s aggressive attempts to de-dollarize global trade in emerging markets where it holds sway. It is most manifest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — also referred to as the New Silk Road — the ambitious infrastructure development project that aims to connect the country to the rest of the world. The Asian giant is increasingly encouraging trade settlements in digital renminbi or e-RMB, its central bank digital currency (CBDC). In fact, the U.S. dollar payments have declined from around 80% in 2010 to 40% in 2024, and RMB payments have risen from negligible in 2010 to around 55% in 2024, the Financial Times reported in August 2024 as it cited the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.     Source: FT, State Administration of Foreign Exchange To dethrone the USD’s dominance in global trade settlements, China is relying on RMB-based payments and bypassing USD-based SWIFT payment networks. Trump’s ‘genius’ to challenge China’s de-dollarization strategy On July 18, Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law to regulate stablecoins pegged to the USD. A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that attempts to stabilize its value, unlike traditionally volatile cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, by being pegged to a traditional currency like the USD or a commodity like gold. The GENIUS Act only concerns itself with stablecoins pegged 1:1 to the USD. The Trump administration is aggressively promoting a digital assets economy, and stablecoins are a dominant segment. However, stablecoins could also be a possible “counter-balance” to de-dollarization trends in emerging markets, as per a recent stablecoin report by the on-chain data analytics platform Messari.   David Krause, Emeritus Professor, Finance Department, Marquette University, recently wrote in a paper that Messari cited: “The Trump administration’s promotion of dollar-backed stablecoins represents a strategic effort to reinforce the dollar’s global role amid increasing discussions on dedollarization.” Trillions of dollars anticipated As per DeFiLlama, the total stablecoin market cap is $263 billion at the time of writing. Tether’s USDT and Circle’s (NYSE: CRCL) USDC account for more than 86% of the market share.   Source: DeFiLlama Other coins like Trump-backed USD1, Ripple’s RLUSD, and PayPal’s PYUSD are also making inroads in the already growing market. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently said many people think the stablecoin market will reach $1 trillion-$2 trillion in “a handful of years.” However, it is yet to be seen if it will grow big enough to challenge China’s attempts to de-dollarize the global economy.

For over a decade, James Howells has tried everything to recover his infamous lost hard drive, the one containing 8,000 BTC, now worth over $900 million “I am done asking permission,” Howells posted on Aug.4. “So I’m tokenizing the entire wallet — 8,000 BTC — into 800 billion Ceiniog Coin (INI) – 1:1 satoshi value match.” Built on Bitcoin and using the OP_RETURN function, Ceiniog Coin will integrate with projects like Stacks, Runes, and Ordinals. According to Howells, the token is launching in late 2025 — and he’s calling it a direct challenge to the institutions that shut him out. “To the established and distinguished gatekeepers who blocked me for over a decade: You can block the gates. You can pack the courts. But you cannot block the blockchain. Crypto already won,” he wrote. Howells had been trying to obtain permission to excavate the Newport Docksway landfill, where he believes the hard drive — mistakenly tossed out in 2013 — still sits under an estimated 100,000 tonnes of waste. “I’ve tried public proposals, percentages, mediation, legal action, and a formal £25 million offer,” he said on X. “They ignored it all. No response. No logic. No leadership.” The council has argued that excavation is not legally permitted and would risk environmental damage. But Howells isn’t giving up. If Newport Council refuses to sell, he’s floated buying the entire site with investors. He’s also appealing the court’s decision and hinted he might take the fight to the UK Supreme Court. As per Kraken’s price feeds, Bitcoin is trading at $103,128.

https://echelonmark.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/echelon_video3.mp4 Imagine a notebook that everyone in the world can see but no one can erase. Now imagine that this notebook isn’t stored in just one place, but copied and constantly updated on millions of computers at the same time. That, in essence, is what a blockchain is. A blockchain is a digital ledger — a tool used to record information. But unlike a spreadsheet on your computer or a company’s internal database, this ledger isn’t owned or controlled by any single person or company. It lives across a vast network of people, all checking and confirming that everything recorded on it is correct. So, what does a blockchain actually do? Think of every action — like sending cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, creating a digital art NFT, or signing a smart contract — as a transaction. These transactions get bundled together into a “block.” Once the block is stacked, it’s added to a chain of previous blocks. Hence the name: block-chain. What’s special is that once a block is added, it’s locked in. You can’t go back and change what’s written in earlier blocks. If someone tries to alter it, the network will immediately spot the fraud because every participant has a copy of the blockchain. This makes it incredibly secure and tamper-proof. Why is blockchain important? Because it removes the need for trust in a middleman. Normally, when you send money or sign a contract, you rely on banks, notaries, or governments to verify and store that information. Blockchain replaces all of them with math, code, and consensus. Instead of trusting one authority, blockchain uses a network of computers — called nodes — that all agree on what’s true. If at least 51% of these nodes agree, a new block is added to the chain. This makes blockchain decentralized and “trustless” — not because it can’t be trusted, but because it doesn’t require trust in a single party.   Where did blockchain start? The first and most famous use of blockchain was Bitcoin. It was created in 2009 to let people send digital money without using a bank. Bitcoin proved that blockchain could solve the double-spending problem — the risk that digital money could be copied and spent twice. Since then, blockchain has grown far beyond crypto. Today, it’s being used for things like: Tracking supply chains (like tracing your food from farm to table) Proving ownership of digital art and music (NFTs) Verifying documents like diplomas or land titles Giving out loans without involving a bank How does it actually work? Most blockchains use systems called Proof-of-Work (PoW) or Proof-of-Stake (PoS) to verify blocks. In Proof-of-Work, incredibly powerful computers compete to solve a difficult puzzle. The first one to solve it gets to add the block and earn a reward. This is what Bitcoin uses — also called “mining.” In Proof-of-Stake, instead of solving puzzles, people “stake” their own coins as a kind of deposit. If they follow the rules, they earn rewards. If they try to cheat, they lose their stake. This method is faster and uses less energy. Is blockchain secure? Yes — it’s one of the most secure technologies out there. Each transaction is encrypted, timestamped, and verified by thousands of independent users. Once added to the blockchain, the data can’t be changed without the entire network noticing.   What’s the catch? Blockchain isn’t perfect. It has challenges like: Energy usage (especially for PoW systems like Bitcoin) Scalability (handling many transactions quickly) Regulation (how governments decide to allow or control its use) But the potential is massive. So, what’s next? We’re seeing early versions of Web3 — a new phase of the internet where users can truly own digital assets, vote in decentralized apps, or even prove their identity using blockchain-based tools. In short: Blockchain is more than tech. It’s a new way to build trust without middlemen. It may seem complex, but at its heart, blockchain is just a better way to keep records — secure, transparent, and built for the future.

https://echelonmark.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/echelon_video2.mp4 Coinbase Global (Nasdaq: COIN), the largest crypto exchange in the U.S., launched perpetual futures trading in the U.S. on July 21. The statement said that users can trade with up to 10 times leverage and fees as low as 0.02%. As the name suggests, these derivatives don’t expire on a certain date. As the product was already anticipated, it didn’t lead to a price rally for the stock, which was added to the S&P 500 list in May. Notably, COIN stock hit an all-time high (ATH) of $444.64 on July 18. The same day, Trump signed the GENIUS Act — the first major crypto-related law in the U.S. Ali Martinez, a popular crypto analyst known as @ali_charts on X, recently shared a price analysis chart for the stock.   The analyst spotted the COIN stock forming a “cup and handle” pattern, which indicated a bullish run soon. Join the discussion with Scott Melker on Roundtable here. Let’s analyze the chart pattern in detail. First, the stock’s price began a steady decline from around $350 in late 2021 to around $35 through the end of the year, forming the left side of the cup. Next, it began recovering in value from early 2023 to around $350 through the end of 2024, forming the right side of the cup. From late 2024 onwards, the price entered a sideways phase, forming the cup’s handle. From mid-2025 onwards, it looks like the stock’s price wants to break out of the handle’s resistance level. If it indeed happens, the Coinbase stock’s price could hit the target range of $950-$1,550, as Ali predicts. COIN was trading at $426.95 at the time of writing.

Global stock markets and U.S. stock futures rose after a slightly lower close on Wall Street on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar remained under pressure as expectations build for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s global trading partners raced to secure deals as Thursday’s tariff deadline approaches. President Trump said he will unveil tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals “within the next week or so” and import levies on drugs could ultimately reach 250%. Negotiations with China, India, the European Union, Switzerland and others continue.

The Fed is under fire for its monetary policy decisions this year. Last year, it decided the risks of rising unemployment were greater than the risk of sticky inflation. As a result, it cut interest rates last September, November, and December, shaving a total of 1% off the Fed Funds Rate used by banks to set lending rates on everything from credit cards to mortgage rates. The pivot from rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 to rate cuts was widely forecast, and a big reason behind the S&P 500’s epic 24% return in 2024. Most thought the Fed would continue to put its foot on the economic gas pedal, reducing rates in 2025, too.    However, that hasn’t happened. The Fed has left interest rates unchanged despite rising layoffs and declining GDP growth. What caused the Fed to pause? Tariffs.  After the Fed’s most recent meeting, where they left rates again unchanged within the 4.25% to 4.5% range, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariffs had forced it to the sidelines.   That decision has drawn sharp criticism from President Trump’s administration, who view interest rate cuts as key to propping up the economy and offsetting the drag tariffs may cause. Nevertheless, Wall Street expects that the Fed won’t remain sidelined forever. Goldman Sachs, one of the most influential firms, has updated its interest rate cut outlook for 2025 based on the most recent economic data.     Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has left interest rates unchanged in 2025. An economy at risk has backed the Fed into a corner The Fed has two jobs: low inflation and unemployment. Unfortunately, accomplishing its mission isn’t easy. Increasing interest rates slows inflation but raises unemployment, while cutting rates increases inflation but lowers unemployment.   Veteran fund manager drops bold July Fed interest rate prediction after jobs shocker   The contrary nature of its dual mandate is on full display this year. The Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 drove inflation from 8% to below 3%. However, they also caused the unemployment rate to increase to 4.1% from 3.4% in 2023. The Fed’s cuts last year were designed to strike a balance, propping up the jobs market without fanning inflationary fires. Unfortunately, President Trump’s tariffs, including 25% on Canada, Mexico, and autos, plus 30% on China and a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, make it much harder for the Fed to walk the inflationary tightrope.  If the Fed cuts more, inflation may reassert itself. If it stays put, the economy may sour and slide into stagflation or recession. There’s already evidence that the economy is weakening. GDP shrank 0.5% in Q1, and the Fed and World Bank expect GDP to be just 1.4% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024. Goldman Sachs ups its rate cut outlook for 2025 The particularly tough backdrop is that some Wall Street firms, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, expect the Fed to remain sidelined for the rest of this year. Goldman Sachs doesn’t share that opinion. It expects that the Fed will turn friendly again, embracing dovish cuts this fall.   Bank of America unveils surprising Fed interest rate forecast for 2026 Their economists previously expected the Fed to reduce its Fed Funds Rate twice before year’s end. However, they changed that outlook recently, and now expect the Fed to cut rates three times. They altered their outlook based on lower-than-expected impacts from tariffs on inflation so far, plus ongoing question marks in the jobs market.  For perspective, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May, a better-than-expected outcome, companies have laid off over 696,000 workers this year through May, up 80% year over year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Goldman Sachs expects the first quarter-point rate cut to occur in September. The Fed is expected to cut again by the same amount at the FOMC’s October and December meetings. In 2026, it predicts an additional two rate cuts, which would leave the Fed Funds Rate at 3% to 3.25%.

The Federal Reserve hasn’t had an easy job in 2025. The central bank is governed by a dual mandate to set rates at levels that encourage low unemployment and inflation—two often contradictory goals. When the Fed increases its Fed Funds Rate, it can lower inflation by slowing economic activity, which also causes job losses. When it cuts rates, economic activity picks up, reducing unemployment but increasing inflation. Most want Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates this year, but doing so may fuel inflation further, given that tariffs may already be causing it to climb. Consequently, deciding what to do with interest rates this year is particularly challenging, particularly after the latest jobs report showed serious cracks forming in the job market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has struggled to balance the Fed’s dual mandate in 2025.Image source: Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images Jobs data causes major shift to Fed interest rate cut chances in September The Fed watches the unemployment rate very closely because of the dual mandate. Last year, the fact that unemployment had climbed above 4% from 3.4% in 2023, while inflation retreated, allowed the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% before the year’s end. This year, the Fed has remained sidelined on rates, awaiting clarity into whether unemployment or inflation worsens.   Related: Goldman Sachs revamps Fed interest rate cut forecast for 2025 The first significant signs of job weakness may have emerged in July. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created only 73,000 jobs. Wall Street economists expected 100,000 jobs, which would have still marked a retreat from May, when 147,000 jobs were created. There were also significant downward revisions to jobs previously reported to have been created in June and May. “Those revisions point to just 33,000 jobs created during those two months, far less than the 272,000 previously cited,” wrote portfolio manager Chris Versace on TheStreet Pro.   As a result, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% from 4.1% in May. More specifically, it climbed to 4.248%. That’s concerning because it narrowly avoided being rounded to 4.3%, which would have marked the highest unemployment rate since 2021. Since unemployment was higher than expected and is potentially nearing a cycle high, the CME FedWatch tool reported that bets for a Fed interest rate cut in September improved to 87% on August 1 from 38% on July 31. The Fed risks falling behind the curve as officials disagree The Fed held interest rates unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% on July 30, but not every voting member agreed. Michelle W. Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision, and Christopher J. Waller, a Fed Governor, dissented, favoring a quarter-percentage-point cut to rates. Additionally, absent and not voting at the meeting was Adriana D. Kugler. Bowman said in a statement released August 1 that her dissent was based upon “increasing signs of fragility” in the labor market and tame inflation. Waller echoed those sentiments in his statement, suggesting that rates are currently too restrictive, and a 3% Fed Funds Rate would be more appropriate. A hesitancy to cut rates could result in the Fed falling behind the curve, requiring it to make more extreme rate cuts in the future. These cuts could prove more dangerous to inflation than more measured cuts this year. Tariff inflation impact keeps Fed on hold Bowman and Waller’s opinion isn’t shared by Fed Chair Powell, who struck a hawkish tone on monetary policy during his post-decision press conference this week. More Federal Reserve: GOP plan to remove Fed Chair Powell escalates Trump deflects reports on firing Fed Chair Powell ‘soon’ Former Federal Reserve official sends bold message on ‘regime change’   Powell reiterated that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target rate and, while acknowledging that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be transitory, urged caution given that the US economy seemingly appears still on solid ground. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food. PCE showed core inflation of 2.8% in June, up from 2.6% in April. Powell may also have a point regarding economic activity being in a good place, given the advance estimate placed gross domestic product, or GDP, at 3%, reversing a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, and matching the level reported in the second quarter of 2024. Another reason supporting patience is that President Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs ended on August 1, resulting in a slate of new tariffs that could increase inflation. The President’s newly set tariffs range from 10% to 41%, including a 35% tariff on Canada. What this means for American consumers The Fed Funds Rate is the rate banks charge each other on overnight loans. If the Fed cuts rates in September, consumers should see a drop in borrowing rates, including credit card, auto loan, and mortgage rates. Mortgage rate relief would be particularly welcome, given that rising home prices and higher mortgage rates have discouraged many would-be home buyers. Banks typically set mortgage rates at 2% to 3% above the 10-year Treasury note yield. After the unemployment rate update, the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.22%, its lowest level since April 30, when it was 4.17%.

https://echelonmark.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/echelon_v2.mp4 Nvidia (NVDA) is in focus after Chinese regulators flagged security concerns in its H20 AI chips. eBay (EBAY) stock is jumping after the company issued a strong sales forecast, driven by increased demand for used and refurbished goods. Moderna (MRNA) is cutting 10% of its global workforce as it reins in costs amid falling COVID-19 vaccine sales. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts.

https://echelonmark.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/echelon_v3.mp4 Despite President Trump ramping up pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday, July 30. Trump has been insistent on a major cut all the way down to 1%. Those who support the idea argue that a lower rate would reduce borrowing costs for consumers, mortgages, auto loans and corporations. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted against the rates, the first time since 1993 that multiple governors voted against a rate decision.   But critics, including economists, former Fed officials and business leaders, warn that such heavy-handed interference in monetary policy could backfire, risking higher inflation, market instability and long-term damage to the Fed’s independence. Here’s what Trump’s push could mean for your job prospects, investments and savings, and why experts say it’s not that simple. Don’t miss Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don’t have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here’s how I’m 49 years old and have nothing saved for retirement — what should I do? Don’t panic. Here are 5 of the easiest ways you can catch up (and fast) Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it   What experts say a Fed rate cut could mean for your wallet While Trump is pressuring the Fed to slash the federal funds rate, some experts argue that bond yields are far more important to the broader economy. In an interview with Fox Business earlier this year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is paying closer attention to the 10-year Treasury yield, not the fed funds rate.   That distinction matters. The Fed funds rate primarily affects short-term borrowing — like credit cards and personal loans. But long-term borrowing, including mortgages and auto loans, is more closely tied to the yield on government bonds. For example, over the past year, even as the Fed cut its policy rate from 5.5% in September 2024 to 4.5% by August 2025, mortgage rates didn’t follow suit. That’s because bond yields have climbed, pushing borrowing costs higher, according to The Wall Street Journal. In fact, many economists warn that if the Fed cuts rates too quickly, bond yields could rise even further, potentially driving up mortgage rates and undermining the very goal of making borrowing cheaper. Capital flight and higher inflation In an interview with the Harvard Gazette, Daniel Tarullo, Nomura Professor of International Financial Regulatory Practice at Harvard Law School and former Federal Reserve governor, warned that Trump’s efforts to pressure or potentially remove Fed leadership could be deeply counterproductive. He argues that bond yields and investor confidence are shaped by the belief that the central bank will act independently and responsibly, and that ndermining that independence could have serious consequences. The Harvard Gazette reported on the subject in April, saying “What markets fear is that if a president removes the chair or other members of the Board of Governors, it would be with the intent of having a looser monetary policy. At that point, the markets’ trust in the central bank will be substantially undermined, and thus, the central bank’s credibility as an inflation fighter will be undermined. Longer-term interest rates will then rise, probably dramatically.”   A similar scenario played out in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan repeatedly pressured the country’s central bank to cut rates against economic advice. According to the American Enterprise Institute, the result was a collapse in the value of the Turkish lira and a surge in inflation. In the U.S., there are multiple layers of protection in place, including institutional norms and legal safeguards, that make it difficult for any president to unilaterally reshape Fed leadership or monetary policy. But experts say the pressure alone can still erode market confidence. Read more: Nervous about the stock market in 2025? Find out how you can access this $1B private real estate fund (with as little as $10) What comes next? With Powell’s term as Fed chair set to end in May 2026, investors and consumers will see a change in leadership at the central bank in the not-too-distant future. Trump will have the authority to nominate a new chair or choose to re-nominate Powell, and the nominee must be confirmed by the Senate. Still, a new chair wouldn’t have the power to set rates alone. The federal funds rate is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which includes the chair, six Fed governors and 12 regional Federal Reserve bank presidents.   “There’s no question that the chair is far and away the most important individual on the FOMC,” Tarullo says. “But it’s not the case that the chair can simply dictate what policy is going to be and the rest of the FOMC will fall into line.” For consumers, experts say the takeaway is more complicated than it might seem. While aggressive rate cuts could reduce borrowing costs in the short term, economists warn they could also lead to higher inflation and long-term instability, especially if the Fed’s independence is weakened. In their view, unless inflation cools or the economy slows, rates on mortgages, credit cards and auto loans are unlikely to drop significantly anytime soon.

https://echelonmark.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/echelon_v1.mp4 As President Trump pushes for aggressive interest rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell resists political pressure, even amid a historic dissent of two members of the FOMC. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers warns that premature rate cuts risk damaging the Fed’s credibility.